miércoles, junio 02, 2004

cálculos consumo energético baleares

balance energético mundial vs illes balears+ se acaba el petróleo
Consumo de energía primaria:8477,4 Millones de tep.
Consumo de energía final: 6660,5 Millones de tep.
(En estos datos solo se consideran las energías comerciales. No se incluyen combustibles como leña, desechos animales o turba, ya que no existen datos estadísticos. La fuente es B. P. Statistical Review of World Energy. Junio 1999.)
consumo de energía mundial en el año 1999 fue de 112.000 TWh/ informe International Energy Outlook 2001
3118 GWh baleares 1996 incremento anual de 5’4%
1996 598 MW
2004 1124MW
año-promedio verano-invierno-MWh
2001 922 799 4.597.944
2002 909 765 4.675.848
2003 1.080 847 5.252.100
2004 1.124 925 5.570.521
2005 1.192 980 5.908.301
2006 1.253 1.031 6.207.496
2007 1.310 1.078 6.490.821
2008 1.369 1.127 6.787.094
2009 1.432 1.177 7.092.513
2010 1.496 1.230 7.411.677
2011 1.563 1.286 7.745.202
el mundo 1999 consume 112.000 TWh (tera watios hora)
baleares en 1995 2701GWh (giga watios hora)
1996 2846,9
1997 3000
1998 3162
1999 3333 GWh
2001 4598 GWh
mundo 112000000 GWh (6000.000000) 0,0186 GWh /hab 18 Wh
balears 3333 GWh (800000) 0,004166 4Wh
(0,003 %)
balears 5571 GWh (800000) 0,006963 GWh 7Wh
se acaba el petróleo
El informe que la consultora Douglas-Westwood ha elaborado habla de una horquilla de 2008-2020 para el final (el agotamiento de las reservas conocidas, en base a toda una batería de cálculos y prospecciones mundiales.
The World Oil Supply Report 2004-2050
The world is drawing down its oil reserves faster than ever and is facing a medium term future of oil price increases that will occur sooner than many people believe. These are amongst the conclusions of the 3rd edition of the acclaimed study The World Oil Supply Report 2004-2050. Independent Analysis: Unlike many publications on oil reserves, the report is an independent analysis. The aim is to get the best possible interpretation of volumes, past, present and future, from the best data available. Every tract of land, every area of sea in every far-flung spot has been included. The report is not limited by commercial pressures or political needs. The World Oil Supply Report contains 330 pages, 143 figures and 16 tables

Por otro lado, diferentes fuentes e informes lo refuerzan, como es el caso de este review:
Mario Murillo interviewed Chris Skrebowski, Trustee of the Oil
Depletion Analysis center and Editor of Petroleum Review on WBAI's
Wake-up Call this morning regarding a new report documenting trends
(with hard data) in oil resources and pointing to something that has
been lengthily discussed on this list: impending petroleum shortages.
The report affirms that oil supply shortfalls are likely after 2007,
as supply is increasingly unable to meet demand. In summary:
"Global oil supplies could start to have difficulty in meeting
growing demand after 2007, according to a recent analysis of existing
and planned major oil-recovery projects published in Petroleum
Review. While a flood of new production is set to hit the market
over the next three years, the volumes expected from anticipated
projects thereafter are likely to fall well below requirements, the
report says. All known projects with estimated reserves of over 500
million barrels and the claimed potential to produce over 100,000
barrels of oil a day were analysed. Projects on that scale account
for about 80 percent of the world's oil supplies. The report found
that just three such projects are expected to come on stream in 2007
and three more in 2008. No new projects could be identified for
start-up in subsequent years. Noting the dramatic drop in major new
oil field discoveries in recent years and the average six-year lead
time required to bring approved mega projects on stream, the report
concludes that the volumes of new production beyond 2007 will likely
fall short of the combined need to replace lost capacity from
depleting older fields and satisfy continued growth in world demand."
The full report is available at: www.odac-info.org
estamos hablando de una crisis energética real, tanto por precio del barril de crudo (hoy 2 de junio 2004, el barril tiene el precio + alto de los últimos 14 años, fuente: el pais)
Por otro lado la tendencia es clara: en el lapso de pocos años (2006-2007) nos enfrentaremos a menos escuchado análisis prospectivo ya propuesto hace 30 años por los investigadores de las energias alternativas.
New Forecast Suggests World Oil Production Peak by 2006-07
World oil production could peak well before the end of the decade, according to an updated analysis by a senior planner at the National Iranian Oil Company. A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari's latest forecast, published in Oil & Gas Journal, suggests that global oil output could peak at around 81 million barrels a day by 2006-2007 and then steadily decline to about 55 million barrels a day by 2020. "Under no scenario (even the most exotic ones)," he reports, could his model "be simulated to peak after 2008 — a date that really seems to be the ultimate terminus ad quem."